But less than a month later, they’re having to eat their words. Kirchner has tackled a reform agenda with the fiery ardor of an independent. He has sacked several top military officers, an unprecedented move, fired half of the senior staff of the Federal Police and persuaded Congress to hold hearings next month to impeach the deeply unpopular Supreme Court president, Julio Nazareno. He flew off to the provinces to personally resolve a couple of teachers’ strikes, then announced a package of measures aimed at reducing tax evasion. He’s also challenged the nation’s utility operators to meet the terms of their contracts or risk having them canceled. The man whose nickname only a few weeks ago was “Chirolita,” a famous puppet, is now being described as “super-Kirchner.”
Kirchner’s political blitzkrieg has pleasantly stunned Argentines. A month ago most people didn’t know how to pronounce the name of this former governor of Santa Cruz, a largely uninhabited Patagonian province. What’s more, Argentina has been in political disarray for so long that citizens had be-come accustomed to caretaker governments. Kirchner’s seemed yet another. Like all pols, Kirchner made campaign promises, but few people actually expected him to fulfill them. The mistake, according to Sergio Berensztein, a political scientist at Torcuato di Tella University, was to underestimate the strength of the Argentine presidency. “All presidents have real power,” he says. “Whether they use it or not is another question.”
Kirchner has not only grabbed it, but proved himself to be a wily politician. He has so far chosen his targets carefully, mainly making changes that don’t require the backing of Congress or the courts. Presenting himself as a “common man” fighting against corruption and injustice, he’s appealed directly to the public for support. The strategy has worked. Though it’s early days, his job-performance approval rating has soared from about 38 percent on the eve of the elections to nearly 80 percent now, according to Roberto Bacman, head of the polling firm CEOPS. Even Kirchner’s notoriously fractious Peronist Party, which is the largest in Congress but lacks a majority, has unified around him.
Argentina’s economy remains a mess, but, paradoxically, that could work in Kirchner’s favor. A fragile recovery has begun–and, in fact, he’s the first president since 1983 to take over with the economy growing. Commodity prices are booming, which helps exports. In addition, because the country has defaulted on a sizable chunk of its debt, the government can easily run a fiscal surplus. And since Argentina is already an economic pariah, there is little that its creditors can do but hover, cap in hand. “Of course there are lobbies,” explains Berensztein, “but the relationship of power has been inverted. Before, the government went begging to the banks and the pension funds [for continued funding]. Now the power is back with the politicians.”
For many observers, that is a frightening thought. Argentina has a long history of caudillos (political strongmen) who have trampled over the country’s institutions. Some are suspicious of the new president’s drive to replace the Supreme Court president, which will likely be followed by attempts to impeach other Supreme Court judges. During the 1990s the court, packed with Menem appointees who became known as “the automatic majority,” rubber-stamped most government decisions. In Santa Cruz, Kirchner packed the highest court with his allies, too. Still, says Horacio Verbitsky, a journalist and human-rights activist, “I don’t think Kirchner is over-doing it. The [Supreme Court] had become a totally scandalous situation.”
Kirchner’s popularity won’t last long if the economy falters again. He’s keen to avoid sharp spending cuts to strangle growth, and wants to extend the temporary deal with the IMF that expires in August. Problem is, IMF chief Horst Kohler will likely press for much more painful reforms during his visit to Argentina this week. Bacman says that Kirchner “has easily proved his legitimacy” and has a “historic opportunity” to become a statesman and change Argentina. To succeed, he’ll need the skills and luck of a true superhero.
